55chapter3IsItPossibletoPreventUnforeseenEvents?TorbjørnRundmoNorwegianUniversityofScienceandTechnologyAbstract:Anunforeseeneventmaybedefinedassomethingthathappenssuddenlyandunexpectedly.Sucheventsareseldomtheresultofanorganisation’soperationalplanning,buttheycanbeside-effectsofsuchplanning.Anunforeseeneventmayhaveeitherpositiveornegativeconsequences.Thischapteraimstodiscussifitispossibletopreventunforeseenevents.Themajorfocusisonanalysisandpreventionofunforeseeneventswithnegativeconsequences,suchasaccidents,catastrophesandactsofterror.Sucheventsoftentakeplaceincomplexsystems,andfailuresofappropriateorganisationalinteractionandcommunicationamongparticipantswithcomplementarycompetenceinsuchsystemsmaycontributetounforeseenevents.Risk-analysismethodsandtoolsbasedonenergy-barriermodels,causalse-quenceandprocessmodels,aswellasinformation-processingmodelsarepresentedandtheirapplicabilitytothepreventionofunforeseeneventsisdiscussed.ThisalsoincludestheBow-tieapproach,aswellasotherapproacheswhichtakeintoconsid-erationorganisationalfactorsandsocialinteraction(samhandling).Theconclusionisthatunforeseeneventscanbeprevented.However,intheaftermathoftheimple-mentationofsafetyandsecuritymeasures,itisnotpossibletoknowwhicheventstheyprevented,ortoobtainknowledgeabouttheirefficiency.Anadditionalstrategyforpreventionofunforeseeneventswithnegativeconsequencesisproposed.Keywords:Samhandling,interaction,emergency-preparedness,training,riskanalysis,organisationallearning,unforeseen.Citation:Rundmo,T.(2018).IsItPossibletoPreventUnforeseenEvents?InG.-E.Torgersen(Ed.),Interaction:‘Samhandling’UnderRisk.AStepAheadoftheUnforeseen(pp.55–74).Oslo:CappelenDammAkademisk.DOI:https://doi.org/10.23865/noasp.36.ch3License:CCBY-NC4.0chapter356IntroductionThischapteraimstodiscussifitispossibletopreventunforeseenevents.Themajorfocusisonanalysisandpreventionofunforeseeneventswithnegativeconsequences,suchasaccidents,catastrophesandactsofterror.Sucheventsoftentakeplaceincomplexsystems,andfailuresofappro-priateorganisationalinteractionandcommunicationamongmemberswithcomplementarycompetenceinsuchsystems,maycontributetounforeseenevents.Risk-analysismethodsandtoolsbasedonenergy-barriermodels,causalsequenceandprocessmodels,aswellasinfor-mation-processingmodels,arepresentedandtheirapplicabilityinthepreventionofunforeseeneventsisdiscussed.ThisalsoincludestheBow-tieapproach,aswellasotherapproacheswhichtakeintoconsiderationorganisationalfactorsandsocialinteraction(Norwegiansamhandling).Theconclusionisthatunforeseeneventscanbeprevented.However,intheaftermathoftheimplementationofsafetyandsecuritymeasures,itisnotpossibletoknowwhicheventstheyprevented,ortoobtainknowledgeabouttheirefficiency.Anadditionalstrategyforpreventionofunforeseeneventswithnegativeconsequencesisproposed.Anunforeseeneventmaybedefinedassomethingthathappenssud-denlyandunexpectedly.Sucheventsareseldomaresultofanorgan-isation’soperationalplanning,buttheycanbeside-effectsofsuchplanning.Anunforeseeneventmayhaveeitherpositiveornegativeconsequences.Unforeseeneventswithpositiveconsequencesareperceivedtocon-tributetoimprovementsinqualityoflife,well-beingandhappiness.Wepreferthemandlikethemtohappenandconsequently,preventingsucheventsisnotanissue.However,theconsequencescanalsobenegativeandprecautionaryactionisoftendemandedtomitigatethese.Kvern-bekk,Torgersenan...
