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CenterforRiskManagementofEngineeringSystemsUniversityofVirginiaRiskAssessmentandManagementforNationalInterdependentInfrastructureandEconomicSystemsPresentedattheConferenceonNewDirectionsforUnderstandingSystemicRiskSponsoredbyTheNationalAcademiesandTheFederalReserveBankofNewYork18May2006YacovY.HaimesL.R.QuarlesProfessorofSystemsandInformationEngineeringFoundingDirector(1987),CenterforRiskManagementofEngineeringSystemsUniversityofVirginiaCenterforRiskManagementofEngineeringSystemsEst.1987UniversityofVirginia2YacovY.Haimes•Sharewithyoubasicanalyticalprinciplesuponwhichasystemicriskassessmentandriskmanagementprocessisbased•Sharewithyouamethodtomeasureandanalyzeriskofextremeandcatastrophicevents:ThePartitionedMultiobjectiveRiskMethod(PMRM)•IntroducetheInoperabilityInput-OutputModel(IIM)forinfrastructureinterdependencies•Providethreecasestudies,withafocusoninterdependentinfrastructureandeconomicsystemsPurposeofthisPresentationCenterforRiskManagementofEngineeringSystemsEst.1987UniversityofVirginia3YacovY.Haimes•Theindustrysectorsoftheeconomyarephysicallyandfinanciallyinterdependentsystems.•Criticalinfrastructures(telecommunications,power,transportation,banking,etc.)aremarkedbyimmensecomplexity.•Theyshareflowsofinformation,security,andphysicalflowsofcommodities(amongothers).•Thereisaneedtoassessandmanagetherisksofextremenaturalandman-madehazardstoournation’sInterdependentInfrastructureandEconomicSystems.InfrastructureInterdependenciesCenterforRiskManagementofEngineeringSystemsEst.1987UniversityofVirginia4YacovY.HaimesThreeCaseStudiesOnRisktoInterdependentInfrastructureandEconomicSystems•CommissiononHigh-AltitudeElectroMagneticPulse(H-EMP)AttacksontheUS•DHS“CrimsonDawn”Exercise(ImpactofRaisingtheAlertLevelontheEconomy)•VirginiaBridge-TunnelTransportationSystemCenterforRiskManagementofEngineeringSystemsEst.1987UniversityofVirginia5YacovY.HaimesAllCaseStudiesHavethefollowingcommonattributes•Havelargepotentialfinancialeffects,asopposedtolifeordeath•Involvemajorinfrastructuresatrisk•FocusonrareandextremeeventsCenterforRiskManagementofEngineeringSystemsEst.1987UniversityofVirginia6YacovY.HaimesOrganizationalKnowledgeManagementRiskAssessmentandRiskManagementofSystemsofSystemsSoftwareHumanHardwareInformationAssuranceCenterforRiskManagementofEngineeringSystemsEst.1987UniversityofVirginia7YacovY.HaimesRiskModeling,Assessment,andManagementForHomelandSecurity(1997-2006)VAGovernor’sPreparednessTeamMethodologyMetricsQuantitativeRiskAnalysisComplexityInterconnect-ednessSurvivabilitySystemsInter-&Intra-dependencyRiskIdentificationCommonDefinitionNationalGroundIntelligenceCenterFBIVirginiaDeptofTransportJointProgramOfficePCCIPNationalScienceFoundationH-EMPCommission(SAIC)DefenseThreatReductionAgencyDeptofHomelandSecurityUSArmyCorpsofEngrsUSArmyI3PNASACenterforRiskManagementofEngineeringSystemsEst.1987UniversityofVirginia8YacovY.HaimesTheProcessofRiskAssessmentandRiskManagementCenterforRiskManagementofEngineeringSystemsEst.1987UniversityofVirginia9YacovY.HaimesRiskAssessment•Whatcangowrong?•Whatisthelikelihoodthatitwouldgowrong?•Whataretheconsequences?[KaplanandGarrick1981]RiskManagement•Whatcanbedoneandwhatoptionsareavailable?•Whataretheassociatedtrade-offsintermsofallcosts,benefits,andrisks?•Whataretheimpactsofcurrentmanagementdecisionsonfutureoptions?[Haimes1991,2004]T...