Bow-tieRiskAnalysisPauloRheinboldtProcessandIndustrialSafetyConsultantDetNorskeVeritasObjectives�PresentationtheBow-tiemethodologybasicconceptsRiskManagementRiskManagementisgrowinginimportancebecause...IncreasingcomplexityanduncertaintyintheworkspaceIncreasingopportunitiesIncreasingstakeholdersexpectationsNeedtooptimizemanagementofUpsideRisks&DownsideRisksNeedtooptimizemanagementofEnterpriseRisk&OperationalRisksRiskMajorEventCausesConsequencesEventCausesBasicCausesImmediateCausesImmediateConsequencesUltimateConsequencesRisk:Thecombinationofaeventprobabilityanditsconsequences(ISO/IECGuia73).RiskManagement:Aprocesstoensurethatallsignificantrisksareidentified,prioritized,andmanagedeffectively(DNV).RiskandLossCausationMajorEventConsequencesEventCausesBasicCausesImmediateCausesImmediateConsequencesUltimateConsequencesTHRESHOLDLIMIT�InadequateSystem�InadequateStandards�InadequateComplianceLackofControl�PersonalFactors�Job/SystemFactorsBasicCauses�SubstandardActsorPractices�SubstandardConditionsImmediateCauses�EventContact(ornear)withenergyorsubstanceIncident�People�Equipment�Material�EnvironmentLossManagingRiskRiskRecognitionRiskEvaluationRiskControlRiskMonitoringEstablishthecontextIdentifyallhazards,threats,&opportunitiesAnalyzetherisksEvaluatetherisksImplementcontrolplansDevelopcontrolplansReview&improveriskmanagementsystemMonitorrisks&controlsWHATMATTERS?WHATISTHERISK?SOWHAT?LET’SDOIT!WHATDOWEDONOW?ISITWORKING?systemCANWEMAKEITBETTER?WHATCANGOWRONG(ORRIGHT)?RiskAnalysisandAssessmentDecisions�1�2�3�...�HAZIDPeopleAssetsQualitativeAnalysisReputationSemi-QuantitativeAnalysisxBenefits�AssetsEnvironmentQuantitativeAnalysisALARPCostsRisksEvaluationRiskAnalysisWhyBow-tie?�Visualizationoftherelationshipbetweenundesirableevent,itscauses,accidentalscenarios,thepreventiveandmitigationmeasurestolimittheirconsequences�Demonstratestheeffectivenessofexistingcontrols�Structuredriskanalysiswherequantificationisnotpossibleor�Structuredriskanalysiswherequantificationisnotpossibleordesired�Extremelyversatile/Successinvariousapplications�RequiredmultidisciplinaryteamThe“SwissCheese”BarrierModelPreventBarriersHAZARDHydrocarboninventoryinHAZARDREALIZATIONLossofcontainmentInherentDesignPlantlayoutMaintenance&InspectionsLearningfromEventsOperationalProceduresEffectiveSupervisionWorkControlReliefandBow-downSystemAudit&SelfRegulationManagementofChangeCommunicationTraining&CompetencyControl,Alarm&Shut-downSysteminventoryinplantandstoragefacilitiescontainmentIgnitionFire/ExplosionFacilitiesPeopleProcessesPreventBarriersHAZARDHydrocarboninventoryinplantandHAZARDREALIZATIONLossofcontainmentIgnitionInherentDesignPlantlayoutMaintenance&InspectionsLearningfromEventsOperationalProceduresEffectiveSupervisionWorkControlReliefandBow-downSystemAudit&SelfRegulationManagementofChangeCommunicationTraining&CompetencyControl,Alarm&Shut-downSystemplantandstoragefacilitiesIgnitionFire/ExplosionFacilitiesPeopleProcessesSowhatdowedonow?Detect,Control,MitigateandRecoveryBarriersMitigateLimitEffect(e.g.delugesystem)ControlLimitextent(e.g.blow-down)DetectGas,Fire,PressureTemperatureHigh-LowCrisisManagement&BusinessRecoveryEmergencyResponseEvacuation,EscapeandRescueHAZARDHydrocarboninventoryinHAZARDREALIZATIONLossofInherentDesignPlantlayoutMaintenance&InspectionsLearningfromEventsOperationalProce...
