TransportationResearchRecord10201RiskAssessmentofTransportingHazardousMaterial:RouteAnalysisandHazardManagementK.DAVIDPIJAWKA,STEVEFOOTE,andANDYSOESILOABSTRACTThetransportationofhazardousmaterialsisagrowingnationalproblem.Thepercentageofhighwayandrailaccidentsthatinvolvehazardousmaterialsisincreasing,theamountofdamagesperaccidentisescalating,andcompliancewithtransportationregulationsiseroding.Amodelforhazardousmaterialsriskmanagementisdevelopedinthispaperwhereinvulnerabilityisaproductofriskreduction(mitigation)andpreparedness.Variousriskassessmentap-proachestoshippinghazardousmaterialsalongmajorrouteswerepresentedandappliedtothestateofArizonasothattransportationroutescouldbecompara-tivelyevaluated.Typeandvolumeofflowweredeterminedfromasurveyofcommercialtrucksthatpermittedananalysisofhazardousmaterialsaccidentprobabilitiesforindividualroutes.Byusingevacuationdistancesforchemicalspills,apopulationriskfactorwasdefinedasthemultiplicativeproductofhazardousmaterialsaccidentprobabilitiesandpopulation-at-risk.Theriskscoreforindividualroutesreflectedtheinteractionoffourvariables:(a)thenumberofhazardouseventsthathaveoccurredontheroute,(blhazardousmaterialsaccidentprobability,(c)population-at-riskandthepotentialhazardrating--acompositeindexincorporatingpotentialincidentseverity,and(d)volumeofhazardousmaterialsbyclass.Thetransportationofhazardousmaterialormate-rials(HM)isagrowingnationalproblem.ThenumberofhighwayaccidentsthatinvolveHMhassteadilyincreasedsince1976,andHMrailaccidentscontinuetoincreaseaswellasthecostsperaccidentll,~l.Despitethesetrends,recentstudieshavefoundthatmanagementactivitiesdirectedatreducingvulner-abilitytoHMaccidentsareinsufficient(l,.!l.Effectivemanagementtoreduceriskandimprovethelevelofpreparednesstomitigatetheadversecon-sequencesofHMreleasesiscontingentonunder-standingthemagnitudeandnatureofthethreattolocalcommunitiesthatresideneartransportroutes.RiskassessmentsofHMtransporthaverecentlyemergedasacriticalneedandseveralmodelsandapproacheshaveappeared(2-.2.l•RiskassessmentofHMtransportcanbeconceptualizedasconsistingofthefollowingactivities:(a)identificationofthetypeandvolumeofHMtransported;(blthenatureofthethreattotheenvironmentandpopulaceofpotentialrelease;(c)theestimationofprobabilitiesofHMaccidentsandchemicalrelease,and(d)theconse-quencesofrelease(10).ThefirstsectionofthispapercontainsdataonnationaltrendsofHMaccidentsandtheidentifica-tionsofseveralnationalpolicyissuesinregulatingHMtransportation.ThisisfollowedbyadescriptionofamodeloftheHMriskmanagementsystem,inwhichcommunityvulnerabilitytoHMaccidentsisdefinedintermsoftheinteractionbetweenthelevelofriskandhazardpreparedness.Alsopre-sentedinthispaperisanapproachforassessingtherisksoftransportingHM.Theapproachisap-pliedtothetransportofHMalongthemajorhighwayroutesinArizona.TRENDSINTHETRANSPORTATIONOFHMHM--theirmanufacture,use,proliferation,transpor-tation,anddisposal,andtheconsequentriskstopublicsafety--presentmanyplanningandmanagementopportunitiesatboththestateandnationallevels.HMconcernsincludedefinition;designation;regula-toryactioninmaterialuse,manufacture,transpor-tationsafety,anddisposal;emergencyresponsetoaccidents;andinvolvementincleanupofchronicproblems.Therearethousandsofmaterialsclassifiedas"hazardousmaterials,""hazardoussubstances,"and"hazardouswastes"thatdependontheirdestinationandmaterialnature....
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