NewMethodforAccidentCausationAnalysisofComplexSocio-technicalSystemsJianweiFeng1,a,SongWang1,b1EquipmentEngineeringCollege,EngineeringUniversityofArmedPoliceForceofChina,Xi’anShaanxi710086,China.aonesoon@163.com,b827754645@qq.comKeywords:Complexsocio-technicalsystems,Accidentcausation,Riskemergence,Arenasimulation.Abstract.Withtheincreasingstructuralcomplexityofcomplexsocio-technicalsystems,whichbecomesalsoincreasinglydifficulttopredictthecatastrophicaccident,thereasonshouldbetheexistingaccidentcausationtheoryincapableofmoderncomplexsystemsaccidentanalysis,spurnedthesystemphysicalstructure,basedonperspectiveoflarge-scalesystemstheory,extractedaccidentcausationfactorsfromflawsoflargesystems,builttheaccidentsystemmodeltosimulatethecross-layerriskemergencebyArenasoftware,thesimulationresultsshowedthatthecross-layerriskemergenceisahigh-dimensionalnonlineargrowthprocess.IntroductionSafetyistheeternaltopicofmankind,ithasbeenaccompaniedbyaccidentsofhumandevelopment.Withthedevelopmentofproductiveforces,thedegreeofcomplexityofmoderncomplexsocio-technicalsystemisalsorising,andthecomplexityofmanyforms,andnowthecomplexityofthesystemisgraduallyincreased.Systemcomplexityincreases,leadingtoacatastrophicaccidentafteranother[1,2,3],suchas:January28,1986explosionoftheUnitedStates,"Challenger"spaceshuttle,theApril1986Chernobylnuclearpowerplanttragedy,theexplosioninMarch2011Fukushimanuclearpowerplant,August12,2015inTianjin,Chinadangerousgoodswarehouseexplosion.Ormutationsoccurwithinthesystemarchitecturefromtheseincidents(suchasthe"Challenger"spaceshuttlesealfailure);orfromtheexternalenvironmentmutationsystem(suchasthesouthernicestorminsnow,coldandothersuddenchangesinweathercausedelectricitythecollapseofthesystem).Environmentalmutationbychangingthesystemstabilityboundary,thusaffectingthesystemcomponentarrangementorder,promptingthesystem'sinternalstructuremutation,causingaccidents,itisconsideredthatthefundamentalcauseofaccidentsisthattheinternalstructureofthemutantsystem,preventionofaccidentscountermeasureistoachieveanintrinsicallysafesystemarchitecture.Differentsystemshavedifferentsystemsofcomplexstructure,complexsystemsfromindividualphysicalstructureitselftostudythecorrelationbetweenstructureandfunctionisextremelydifficult,andtherelationshipbetweenstructureandfunctionoflogicstudiedspecialcomplexsystems,fortherestofthecomplexsystemisnotapplicable.Inaddition,fortheaccident,thecauseofmanysystemsarenotonlypresentintheinteriorofthephysicalsystem[4],suchashumanerror,environmentaldisturbancesandotherincidentsbelongtoacomplexsystemofobjectiveexternalfactors[5].Atthispointyouneedtoanalyzecomplexsystemsabstractedasgeneralissuesaccidenttoexpandresearch,ascanbeunderthepremiseofexpandingthesystemboundary,accordingtocertainrulestoextractthemappingofcomplexsystemsingeneralaccidentfactors,andaccessthroughastructuredapproachFactorsprogressivehierarchicalmodel,namelytobuildacomplexsystemthatcorrespondswiththeobjective,andthegreaterthesystemboundaryandthesystemhasastrongelementofaccidentsystemclusteringproperties.Furtherpossibleaccidentsthroughavarietyofbehavioralcognitivesystems,particularlykineticbehaviorofitsrisks,controlmeasurestoachievesecurityofcomplexsystems.4thInternationalConferenceonMechatronics,Materials,ChemistryandComputerEngineering(ICMMCCE2015)©2015.Theauthors-PublishedbyAtlantisPress2949Map...
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