"ARiskAssessmentMethodologyforPhysicalSecurity"§£pJcBettyBiringer*-*Of/SystemsAnalysisandDevelopmentDepartment,5845SandiaNationalLaboratories,MS0759Albuquerque,NewMexico87185(505)844-3985(505)844-0011FAXE-mail:bebirin@sandia.govViolence,vandalism,andterrorismareprevalentintheworldtoday.Managersanddecision-makersmusthaveareliablewayofestimatingrisktohelpthemdecidehowmuchsecurityisneededattheirfacility.AriskassessmentmethodologyhasbeenrefinedbySandiaNationalLaboratoriestoassessriskatvarioustypesoffacilitiesincludingUSMintsandfederaldams.Themethodologyisbasedonthetraditionalriskequation:Risk=PA*(l-PE)*C,PAisthelikelihoodofadversaryattack,PEissecuritysystemeffectiveness,1-PEisadversarysuccess,andCisconsequenceoflosstotheattack.Theprocessbeginswithacharacterizationofthefacilityincludingidentificationoftheundesiredeventsandtherespectivecriticalassets.Guidancefordefiningadesignbasisthreatisincluded,aswellasforusingthedefinitionofthethreattoestimatethelikelihoodofadversaryattackataspecificfacility.Relativevaluesofconsequenceareestimated.Methodsarealsoincludedforestimatingtheeffectivenessofthesecuritysystemagainsttheadversaryattack.Finally,riskiscalculated.Intheeventthatthevalueofriskisdeemedtobeunacceptable(toohigh),themethodologyaddressesaprocessforidentifyingandevaluatingsecuritysystemupgradesinordertoreducerisk.RiskassessmentSecurityeffectivenessPhysicalsecurityConsequenceVulnerabilityanalysisLikelihoodofattackSandiaisamultiprogramlaboratoryoperatedbySandiaCorporation,aLockheedMartinCompany,fortheUnitedStatesDepartmentofEnergyundercontractDE-AC04-94AL85000.DISCLAIMERThisreportwaspreparedasanaccountofworksponsoredbyanagencyoftheUnitedStatesGovernment.NeithertheUnitedStatesGovernmentnoranyagencythereof,noranyoftheiremployees,makeanywarranty,expressorimplied,orassumesanylegalliabilityorresponsibilityfortheaccuracy,completeness,orusefulnessofanyinformation,apparatus,product,orprocessdisclosed,orrepresentsthatitsusewouldnotinfringeprivateiyownedrights.Referencehereintoanyspecificcommercialproduct,process,orservicebytradename,trademark,manufacturer,orotherwisedoesnotnecessarilyconstituteorimplyitsendorsement,recommendation,orfavoringbytheUnitedStatesGovernmentoranyagencythereof.TheviewsandopinionsofauthorsexpressedhereindonotnecessarilystateorreflectthoseoftheUnitedStatesGovernmentoranyagencythereof.DISCLAIMERPortionsofthisdocumentmaybeillegibleinelectronicImageproducts.ImagesareproducedfromthebestavailableoriginaldocumentAnalysisMethodologyAnanalysismethodologyhasbeenusedtoassessthevulnerabilityofphysicalprotectionsystemsforfacilities.Figure1describestheorderandsequenceofthesevenbasicstepsofthemethodology.1.FacilityCharacterizationAninitialstepinsecuritysystemanalysisistocharacterizethefacilityoperatingstatesandconditions.Thissteprequiresdevelopingathoroughdescriptionofthefacilityitself(thelocationofthesiteboundary,buildinglocations,floorplans,andaccesspoints).Adescriptionoftheprocesseswithinthefacilityisalsorequired,aswellasidentificationofanyexistingphysicalprotectionfeatures.Thisinformationcanbeobtainedfromseveralsources,includingfacilitydesignblueprints,processdescriptions,safetyanalysisreports,environmentalimpactstatements,andsitesurveys.CharacterizeFacilityAIdentifyUndesirableEvents&CriticalAssets1DetermineConsequencesDefineThreatsAnalyzeProtectionSystemEffectivenessEstim...
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